This week’s Monday Night Raw, a mostly pointless episode, ended with an intense dialogue between Cody Rhodes and CM Punk. It was a well-acted scene with several well-constructed statements, mainly that Cody Rhodes is no longer “chasing” CM Punk but that it was now Punk “chasing” him.

One would be forgiven to surmise, based on this scene, that Punk v Rhodes will headline WrestleMania 41. In fact, I’d argue this scene necessitates Punk face Rhodes for the title at Mania. Otherwise, why am I seeing it?

The characters have an interesting history and the imagery and soundbites would make for a fantastic pre-match vignette. Everything about their interactions over the past year, culminating in this promo, lays the groundwork for a championship match.

And yet, I don’t buy any of it.

In order for us to enjoy art we have to believe it. Whether theatre, film, dance, painting, poetry, or performance an audience must be able to place their faith in what they’re seeing and hearing so that they might be rewarded with emotional & intellectual catharsis. In any good story, in any medium, events build upon events to form a natural, emotional trajectory.

This is why WWE fans look forward to "WrestleMania season”. It’s where an assortment of narrative directions finally take shape (or so it would seem). But what’s supposed to be the most exciting time of wrestling’s year is, in actuality, one of its most annoying.

Why?

WWE does not decide on one or more WrestleMania main events until one month (or less) before WrestleMania. The result is a guessing game between company and fans, as the intangible calculations turnover: who is “hot” or popular at the moment, what is The Rock doing, who “deserves” what? etc.

The affect this has on the veracity of The Royal Rumble is nothing short of catastrophic. The Royal Rumble simply does not matter, if it ever did. A close study of WrestleMania season reveals a wild tangle of narrative threads (and coin tosses) that comes together only in the eleventh hour (last year’s WrestleMania is a perfect example of this). The Rumble winner is not necessarily a Superstar who has benefited from a consistent build into the Rumble, and they’re also not necessarily the person who will challenge for either title in the main event of WrestleMania, as advertised.

Remember, there’s another premium live event before WrestleMania, The Elimination Chamber. Presumably this exists to determine who will face the presently unchallenged WWE or World Champion, a semantics chore.

What am I getting at?

Logan Paul, Seth Rollins, and Gunther in the ring

I do not believe we should even see CM Punk and Cody Rhodes going face to face on the RAW before The Rumble unless WWE has already decided (for a shoot) that Punk and Cody will main event one night of WrestleMania. I believe this because to take what happened at the end of this episode of RAW and render it pointless needlessly abuses the fan’s ability to emotionally invest in a story.

Why am I literally seeing them if they represent a story without intention? If Punk isn’t going to win the Rumble (which I suspect he won’t), why is it even being put in our heads as a possibility? Their dialogue, interesting as it may be, amounts to absolutely nothing and I’m made a fool for placing my faith in what WWE has shown me. This has happened countless times, and I’m no longer willing to give WWE “the benefit of the doubt”. I want them to create thoughtfully constructed narratives that may branch into unpredictable places but without needlessly jerking viewers around. I want them to know who’s going to win The Royal Rumble by January 1st of the year (barring injury) and for that Superstar to also challenge for one of the WWE Championships in the last match on one of WrestleMania’s nights. That is the effective path to follow. For too long WWE has been permitted to pass off an inability to plan as “exciting unpredictability” on the ever-winding “road to WrestleMania”.

I will admit I don’t know how to run an entertainment company, and that there are innumerable factors I’m simply unaware of that go into planning (or purposefully not planning) an event like WrestleMania. At the same time, I’m a fan and an analyst (in that order) and I think the company has struck a pact with the fan - an unbroken bond built on a mutually beneficial storytelling system. They showcase a particular talent with high profile matches and promos, that talent earns the admiration of the fans, that talent goes on to win matches, tournaments, battle royals, and championships.

That is not the pact between fans and WWE, though. The relationship between fans and the WWE is cruder; watch what we make because we make it, and also pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.

IN CONCLUSION

We limp into this Royal Rumble with no one particularly hot. Punk, Cena, and Reigns are certainly big names, but the audience seems anesthetized leading into Saturday. Punk, Cena, Reigns, and possibly The Rock make for an exciting final four (substitute The Rock with Drew McIntyre if need be), and the pure excitement of those final minutes might be worth the emotional investment. But the past tells me to be cautious with my feelings, to not place my faith in anything WWE shows me until Saturday, April 19th 2025.

I’m tired of participating in this guessing game. This year, I refuse to play along.

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Tim Kail's Raw Review, 1/27/25